10 Lessons from London’s Property Market and what they mean for 2024

1. What price crash?

Doom-mongers spent the tail end of 2022 predicting London, and indeed the entire UK, was heading towards an inevitable 2023 house price crash.

In reality average Prime Central London (PCL) prices barely faltered, dropping a negligible 0.9 per cent last year according to the latest research from estate agent Savills.

This resilience is mainly down to the fact that 70 per cent of homes in PCL are owned outright and their owners have been completely unaffected by the series of Bank of England base rate hikes which have pushed prices down elsewhere.

Black Brick expects to see more of the same this year. Unless some dramatic and truly unexpected event occurs, it is as hard to imagine a sudden boom in prices as it is a shock collapse.

Estate agent forecasts for how the market will perform in 2024 have – so far – been unanimously lacklustre. JLL and Savills both think prices will flatline during 2024 before starting to climb again in 2025. By 2028 the firms predict cumulative PCL price growth of around 19 per cent.

2. First amongst equals.

London’s property market is incredibly nuanced. The overall picture in last year was rather beige but there have been some pops of colour.

Best in class homes – from luxe lateral apartments on picturesque garden squares to impeccable family houses in sought-after suburbs – have shone.

“This kind of property is rare, and demand is always high no matter what the rest of the market is like,” said Dell.

Caspar Harvard-Walls, a partner of Black Brick, thinks this kind of dream home attract premium prices and constant demand partly because buyers are thinking long term when they invest in a property nowadays. “Increased acquisition costs mean that people now consider their moves much more

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