Very few people—including the most-informed economists—would have predicted the biggest economic events of this past year. They included the energy crisis set off by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the inflation stoked, in part, by China’s continued struggles with the COVID-19 pandemic. But if some economic stories are the product of unforeseeable shocks, others are the result of more legible trends.
FP economics columnist Adam Tooze flagged three such trends on the podcast we co-host, Ones and Tooze: the downturn in U.S. housing, shifts in Japan’s monetary policy, and Africa’s growing struggles with public debt. What follows is an excerpt of our conversation focused on U.S. housing, edited for length and clarity.
For the full conversation, look for Ones and Tooze wherever you get your podcasts.
Very few people—including the most-informed economists—would have predicted the biggest economic events of this past year. They included the energy crisis set off by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the inflation stoked, in part, by China’s continued struggles with the COVID-19 pandemic. But if some economic stories are the product of unforeseeable shocks, others are the result of more legible trends.
FP economics columnist Adam Tooze flagged three such trends on the podcast we co-host, Ones and Tooze: the downturn in U.S. housing, shifts in Japan’s monetary policy, and Africa’s growing struggles with public debt. What follows is an excerpt of our conversation focused on U.S. housing, edited for length and clarity.
For the full conversation, look for Ones and Tooze wherever you get your podcasts.
Cameron Abadi: What exactly has triggered the downturn in U.S. housing that we’ve already seen, and how much more could the housing market be expected to drop from here?
Adam Tooze: What’s triggered it is pretty clear, which is that the [Federal Reserve] has hiked interest rates, and mortgage rates have responded