Australian property predictions for 2024: Upgrade buyer impact, rental market resilience, and price growth insights

Australian property prices to grow by one per cent to four per cent in 2024. Affordability woes will continue to see first-home buying subdued. Upgrade buyers dominate the market, propping up prices.

The recovery of home prices is predicted to continue into 2024, but at a slower pace than this year, according to PropTrack’s Property Market Outlook Report December 2023.

At the start of this year, PropTrack analysts forecasted that national home prices would fall.

This made sense, with interest rates rising swiftly and borrowing capacities consequently reduced; the argument was that houses would become too costly, freeing up supply and causing prices to adjust.

However, this prediction did not come to pass. As of November 2023, prices grew by 5.5% year-to-date. Sales volumes rebounded strongly from the start of 2023, and buyer activity intensified. Hence, prices spiralled, with supply failing to keep pace with elevated demand.

Quarterly and annual change in national home prices

Source: PropTrack.

“Australia’s property market proved resilient in 2023. Home prices have increased 5.5% so far this year to a record high, despite deteriorating housing affordability and interest rate rises significantly reducing borrowing capacities,” said PropTrack director of economic research and report author, Cameron Kusher.

“Nationally, we expect prices to grow between 1% and 4% in 2024. We expect that a combination of continued strong demand and limited new housing construction will contribute to price gains, albeit at a slower pace than what we experienced this year.”

Cameron Kusher, PropTrack

“Stage three tax cuts will commence in July, which will benefit higher income earners, and in turn, could lead to increased demand for higher priced housing.”

Accordingly, here are three trends that will shape the housing market in 2024:

First home buyers to continue suffering Home upgrades will sustain the

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